Othello Quiz 8

White 119                                         Black 98
Match to 3 Points   Black 1  White 0

Source : http://spbg.sakura.ne.jp/fes2009quiz.html
Forum: http://spbg.sakura.ne.jp/cgi-bin/yybbs.cgi

Overview
Cube is centered, so both players have access to it. Black has 2 pts to go White 3 pts to go. Most effective way for Black to win the match is by winning this game with a Gammon. Black has already a nice Racelead, but his Positions is not realy nice, all his Points are stripped, and his Homeboard is heavy frontloaded (spares on the 4 and 2 Pt). White on the other Side has a nice strong 4 Pt-Board, but is back in the race.  We have here a typicall Holding Game situation.
White´s Gameplan is quite easy here, he is waiting for a shoot, in the meantime he will try to improve his board. White will try to stay far back as possible to make it difficult for Black to play his bad rolls. Black´s plan here is to play as save as possible, and he will try to bring some flexibility in his positon. Should Black play here for a Gammon? When we consider the Score, then yes, but when we take a look at this position, Black should be happy to clear his Points and winning the race.

8/6 8/5*

 
Many times it´s the right idea to attack a blot on the 5 Point, but is it right here ?
White has a 4 pt-board, Black has a 3 pt-board, this points against a hit on the 5 pt here.
Black has no runner back and has a Racelead, again no hit here. A rehit from White here is fatal for Black, White has 16 rehits.
Can Black be sure to cover his blot on his 5 pt next turn, no he cant, he has only aces, 7 and 8 to cover, some of them leaves again a reshoot for White. And there are some rolls which makes the 3 or 1 pt with the Blot on the 5pt.
Does it realy hurt White to be hit here, no it doesnt, it helps him. As we already said in the Overview, White wants to be far back as possible, with the hit Black not only gives White the possibilty to rehit, he gives him also the possibilty to enter at the 1 or 3 Point.
Another point to consider is the timing, white´s timing is improving to hold his Holding Position, and Black´s bad timing is becoming more bad.
Finally we can closeout this move, cause its not save and it helps White more.

6/4 6/3

 
This move is better than the last one, cause its completly save and doesnt leaves any shoots for White.
But Black has to pay a high price here, he is loosing with this move a very good landing point for his checkers. It makes the position from Black more unflexible as before. It´s just a matter of time when Black has to leave shoots here. We can close out this one quite fast.  Black doesnt have a lot of positionell assets, and with this move he is giving up a asset.

13/8

It´s always a good idea to clear the points from behind, so clearing the farest Point away. It also brings Black some flexibility back with the spare on the 8 Point and the Blot on the Midpoint. But this play is also very dangerous, it leaves 19 shoots for White. Any hit from White will be almost the end for Black, so this play is too dangerous and too risky at this Position.

4/2 4/1

This move is absolute save for Black, no reshoots for White. Black keeps his landing Point at his 6 Point. The negativ point is Black destroyes his Board completly. But Black has to see here that his Board anyway was already in bad shape and it important for Black to see that he not looking for any hit contest or trouble, he just want to bring home his Position and winning simple the race. Thats why this is the best move, even if it doesnt looks nice.

1. Rollout¹  4/2 4/1                      eq:-0.366
      Player  : 47.32% (G:4.45% B:0.17%)
      Opponent: 52.68% (G:12.74% B:1.04%)
      Confidence: ± 0.017 (-0.383<E<-0.349)
      Duration: 11 minutes 29 seconds

    2. Rollout¹  13/8                eq:-0.453 (-0.087)
      Player  : 43.27% (G:5.57% B:0.21%)
      Opponent: 56.73% (G:12.95% B:0.56%)
      Confidence: ± 0.019 (-0.472<E<-0.434)
      Duration: 12 minutes 18 seconds

    3. Rollout¹  6/4 6/3             eq:-0.532 (-0.167)
      Player  : 43.72% (G:4.69% B:0.20%)
      Opponent: 56.28% (G:15.27% B:0.66%)
      Confidence: ± 0.017 (-0.549<E<-0.515)
      Duration: 10 minutes 33 seconds

    4. Rollout¹  8/6 8/5*           eq:-0.732 (-0.366)
      Player  : 40.81% (G:10.13% B:0.59%)
      Opponent: 59.19% (G:18.65% B:0.70%)
      Confidence: ± 0.020 (-0.752<E<-0.712)
      Duration: 13 minutes 00 second

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